The Middle East is Not Heading Toward Total Imperialist War Yet, but the Social Conditions of Class War are Ripening

In recent weeks, the media has raised alarms about the Middle East, following the lead of diplomats and politicians of all stripes. They say that the current conflicts could escalate to general war within the region, going so far as to conjure the specter of a world war. Israeli raids on Iran and Iran’s response certainly seem to give credence to this apocalyptic future, which would see people across the Middle East drawn into the fray of this conflict.

The global economic crisis is only getting worse, and it brings austerity and worsening living conditions for workers. In this context, the threat of a world war could be a new weapon used to terrorize the proletariat.

As early as 1871, we Marxists made it clear that the bourgeoisies across the world are now united in the struggle against their one mortal enemy: the proletariat. In the Middle East, the workers are divided. To this day, they remain fully entangled in the conflicts between the region’s bourgeoisies.

Since October 2023, Israeli initiatives have become increasingly aggressive: the relentless and murderous rampage in the Gaza Strip, the repression in the West Bank, the assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah cadres and leaders, the attacks on civilians in Lebanon, and the raids in Iran are all proof of this. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria have all received warning shots in recent months from Israeli forces—which are heavily supported both materially and financially by the United States. We are witnessing a growing alignment between Israel’s interests and those of U.S. imperialism in the Middle East.

As the US faces the economic advance of Chinese imperialism, its diplomatic maneuvers are aimed at preserving its investments in this region. But China is also going through an economic downturn and needs both a European market and a pacified Middle East for its economic interests.

Since at least March 2023, the Asian giant has played a lead role in the diplomatic breakthrough between historic rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. In June 2023, both Saudi Arabia and China announced investment agreements totaling $10 billion, spanning sectors like agriculture, renewable energy, electric vehicles, real estate, minerals, and tourism. These agreements were part of the 10th Arab-Chinese Economic Conference held in Riyadh and paved the way for Saudi Arabia to join the BRICS Development Bank. Established in 2014 under Chinese leadership, the BRICS Bank aims to finance development aid, and positions itself as a competitor to the World Bank.

We absolutely must take into account the fact that the Middle East is home to 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves. General war in the Middle East would be catastrophic for economies that are heavily dependent on oil imports. Such a move would trigger an immediate and severe recession, not just in Europe and India, but in China too.

* * *

Regardless of all the speculation about “total war”, Israel’s response to Iran has so far been “measured,” thanks to American injunctions. Tehran has only reported damage to critical solid-fuel missile production facilities, which are the only ones capable of being deployed on short notice—the IDF did not target any nuclear or oil sites. In the hierarchy of the bourgeois world, small and medium-sized powers often find themselves having to avoid escalations that will affect the interests of the major powers. It is thus likely that Iran’s response will be equally calibrated.

Western economic sanctions have forced Tehran to strengthen relations with Moscow and Beijing. Russia and Iran are both major oil and gas producers and have thus forged economic (and also strategic) ties. Both militarily support the Syrian regime, Russia provides Iran with armaments like the S-300 missiles, and Iran had provided Moscow with the drones it needs in its war against Ukraine.

As for Iran and China, the two signed a 25-year strategic partnership in 2021, which includes a massive Chinese investment in energy, infrastructure, and telecommunication sectors. Despite US sanctions, China is also the main importer of Iranian oil, and Iran is a good importer of goods manufactured in China. Iran, China, and Russia have already participated in joint military exercises, like the one in 2019. In 2021, Iran, sponsored by China and Russia, began the process of becoming a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which would allow it to circumvent some US sanctions.

* * *

We briefly touched on the economic and social situation of Turkey in the previous issue of this paper. On several occasions, President Erdogan’s words have openly supported—or at least claimed to—the Palestinian “cause” against the “Zionist” danger posed by the Israeli state. These words must be “filtered” through the lens of Turkish imperialism’s special interests and its particular positioning. As it is already a stable member of NATO, Turkey benefits by looking eastward. It is no coincidence that it asked to join the two most powerful “Asian-led” international alliances: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. Turkey hopes to position itself so that it has access to these important sources of funding.

So, Turkey is pursuing its own ambitious expansionist plans in the region, which we already witnessed during the wars that followed the so-called “Arab Spring.” With the support of Qatar, Turkey attempted to strike at the Syrian regime, all while supporting Egyptian President Morsi and actively participating in the conquest of Libya both during and after the fall of Qaddafi. Now that the situation is centered around the conflict between Iran and Israel, Turkey is cunningly casting itself as the defender of the Palestinian cause. Turkey has a claim to gain legitimacy in the Middle East: its goal is to sit as a protagonist at the imperialist negotiating table, just as it had already tried to do during the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

* * *

The Arab countries that signed the Abraham Accords with Israel in 2020—Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, and Bahrain—have expressed no desire to withdraw. Neither Jordan nor Egypt have recalled their ambassador to Israel, despite strong popular protests. These countries, like Saudi Arabia, are quick to denounce Israel’s actions publicly; meanwhile, they take great pleasure in watching Tehran-backed forces weaken.

As previously mentioned, in March 2023, Saudi Arabia initiated a conciliation process with Iran through the mediation of the Beijing government. However, these developments have faced significant setbacks as events have unfolded, particularly given the heightened attention drawn by the Houthis through their recent escalations in military activity. Similarly, attempts to soften its relationship with Israel gained some traction, but for the most part, they are now on hold—awaiting better times. Saudi Arabia’s position is simply ambivalent. On the one hand, it has strengthened trade cooperation with China. On the other hand, it still relies on the United States for internal and regional security.

The UAE has gained some significant prominence in recent years. It participated in the second conflict in Libya and supported the Tobruk government. It’s also stretched out to Yemen, where its intervention has put them in conflict with Saudi strategic interests—especially after the occupation of Socotra. Finally, in Sudan, it ranks among those who fuel the ongoing war (which we will cover in the next issue).

Despite its warmongering initiatives, Abu Dhabi’s strategic goal is to consolidate its so-called “soft power,” via major financial and commercial initiatives. For example, they’ve invested $35 billion in Egypt for the development of the Ras El Hekma peninsula. This is already a considerable amount, and there are even rumors that this might swell up to $150 billion. This major investment in Al Sisi’s Egypt underscores how important it is for the Emiratis to align Cairo with their interests. This need is also reflected militarily, as the two nations are cooperating in Libya and now in Sudan.

Largely due to Qatar’s increasingly close relations with Turkey, the UAE finds itself increasingly at odds with Turkey. This is evidenced by the signing of the Abraham agreements, support for Al Sisi and Kurdish forces in Syria, and even crocodile tears shed over the Armenian genocide. As is often the case in the Middle East, belligerent attitudes coexist with detente. Notable examples include financial agreements between the UAE and Turkey (mentioned in our previous issue), as well as recent military collaboration, like the sale of Bayraktar drones.

What we have described so far offers only a fragmentary glimpse into the intricate and complex power balance in the Middle East. This balance is not defined, nor far from being stabilized: it is in full swing. At a recent public Party conference in Florence, we said “Such a variable geometry of alliances can be seen, for example, in the conspicuous Russian presence in Syria. After more than a decade of war, the Israeli force has had almost daily raids on Iranian militias and Damascus’s forces. Yet Russia has never defended its allies in Syria and allows Israel to continue to carry out its deadly attacks. The only demand Russia makes of Israel is that they communicate in advance, so as to not involve Russian troops.”

For our part, we can only reaffirm the one certainty we hold: all national bourgeoisies in the Middle East, just like in the rest of the world, act solely to protect and advance their own interests. They continually forge and dissolve alliances based on whatever offers them the maximum possible benefit. Regardless of which imperialist camp is involved—be it the United States or Russia and China—no one is ready for the direct confrontation that an all-out war in the region would entail. The alliance structure remains too fluid for preparations for a total regional war to begin in earnest.

In any case, for us revolutionary communists, it is not enough to stop here. We must turn our gaze towards the prospects of social war and its articulation in the region. To this end, in late July, during the intercalary meeting, we developed an initial work plan to systematically study the Middle East. We highlighted several issues that certainly deserve to be studied through the lens of revolutionary Marxism.

• The region has one of the highest rates of youth unemployment in the world. These are the figures as of 2023: Algeria at 30.8%, Egypt at 19%, Jordan at 40.8%, Lebanon at 23.7%, Libya at 49.4%, Sudan at 18.2%, Morocco at 22.6%, Turkey at 17.6%, Yemen at 32.7%, Iraq at 32.2%, Iran at 22.8%, Syria at 33.5%, Palestine at 36% in 2022, and Tunisia at 37.5%. These figures are truly significant. They necessarily imply an increasingly difficult situation, with little hope for improvement for future generations.
• Due to the various brigand-like conflicts among both large and small powers in the region, millions have been forced out of their homes. They amass and seek refuge in relatively safer areas. It is estimated that by the end of 2024, 11.7 million people across the Middle East and North Africa will have been displaced within their own natural borders (UNHCR). In Lebanon alone, approximately 1.2 million people are fleeing conflict-affected areas, alongside 1.5 million Syrian refugees. 1.4 million Syrian refugees currently reside in Jordan, with an estimated 90% living below the poverty line. In Iraq, the war against ISIS has left 1.7 million people displaced within the country, unable to return to their native regions. Meanwhile, in Yemen, 4.5 million people (14% of the population) have fled their home regions due to the ongoing conflict.
• The Middle East is among the regions with the highest levels of “social inequality” globally, comparable to countries in South Africa and Brazil. Between 47% and 60% of national income is in the hands of the richest 10%, while the poorest 50% of the population contribute about 8-15% of total income. Countries like the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have the highest rate of “social inequality.” Masses of workers (predominantly immigrants) are subjected to the exploitative wrath of the “kafala” system. This system of laws and practices places migrant workers under the control of their employers, who dictate their ability to enter, reside, work, and, in some cases, leave the host country. Generally, these workers cannot leave or change jobs before their contracts are complete, a set period has elapsed, or they receive permission from their employer. Those who attempt to leave without authorization risk arrest and deportation on charges of absconding.
• The environmental and water crisis is hitting the agricultural sector hard in countries such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. It has produced devastating effects on agriculture, as more and more farmers are reduced to starvation and are being forced to abandon their lands by amassing in large cities. On top of that, the water supply issue magnifies the friction between the states themselves—like with the large dam projects in Turkey and Ethiopia. There is reason to believe that one of the many reasons (and not the only one!) for the current military operation in Lebanon is Israeli attempts to control the Litani River, which was mentioned in UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006. Similarly, it works as a way to permanently prevent Lebanon from diverting the course of the Wazzani River, which feeds 25% of the Jordan River.
• In countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iraq, rapid urbanization and the concentration of large proletarian masses pose a significant “security” problem. To maintain social peace, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to simply pay off the plebs with the bare minimum: housing, work, and access to essential services. These countries will be forced to resort to more and more repressive measures to uphold the bourgeois order.

We have explored the likelihood of general war in the Middle East and emphasized the shifting alliances among the regional powers and the broader maneuvers of China and the United States. It is equally important to address the deep social fault lines within the region. These fractures signify the steady and inevitable ripening of the conditions for social warfare. For this war to set class-based objectives and to threaten the bourgeois world order, the International Communist Party—the only force capable of leading the proletariat to victory—must take root.