War and hunger in store for the proletariat in Turkey

The Turkish lira was hit by a number of crashes in recent weeks. Since the beginning of the year, it lost 90% against the US dollar, dropping another 40% in the month of November alone, the declining trend continuing in December. In recent months, due to general unfavorable conditions, high inflation, the sharply rising energy prices – oil in particular – and higher costs due to the pandemic, the lira has been under pressure.

One of the reasons why is in the policies of the Turkish government itself. The government is holding on to its interest rate cut policy while requiring the Central Bank (CBRT) to lower the price of money in the belief that this is going to stimulate investments, keep the economy vibrant and create jobs.

International financial institutions, on the other hand, claim that in order to combat inflation an increase to the interest rate would be necessary and they are pressing the Central Bank to act accordingly. However, President Erdogan seems determined in continuing his economic policy. To enforce it, in recent months he replaced CBRT’s top management and the finance minister three times, also replacing several undersecretaries and two deputy ministers. Erdogan thus lowered the interest rate from August’s 19% to the current 14% while stating the intention to lower the rate even further.

Worse comes to worst, the stubborn defense of the exchange rates has led to international speculation upon the Turkish currency. Some financial analysts have declared that the Turkish lira has entered “uncharted territories”.

In December, the CBRT intervened several times by placing part of its foreign currency and gold reserves on the market, only for the lira to recover a few percentage points against both Euro and US dollar. In the meantime, inflation keeps on growing – by 20-ish% yearly, according to the government. According to independent economists however, it seems that the inflation rate is over 58%.

Its effect on the population is the increase of prices, and those who are hit the hardest are the workers as the spending power of their wages and pensions shrinks. In the bigger cities, long queues of retirees and poor people form every morning in front of the “Halk Ekmek” bakeries – which are managed by the cities – where bread can be bought at a reduced price – they would pay double or more shopping at privately owned bakeries. The huge foreign debt of Turkish banks and companies exposes the country to international speculation. As the Turkish currency loses international value, the price in liras of imported products rises, however, it has so far favored exports given that made in Turkey commodities are being sold at a lower price in foreign currencies. Nonetheless, even that benefit is diminishing as price volatility slows trading.

One of the sectors that made the most out of the current situation is definitely the new Turkish arms industry. Aided by the government’s unscrupulous warmongering policy, the arms industry is thriving. Dearsan shipyards sold two offshore patrol ships to Nigeria. In the port of Karachi, Pakistan, the keel-laying ceremony for a Milgem Ada-class corvette was held on November 5. The corvette is the byproduct of a joint venture between Turkey and Pakistan.

It was reported in late November that Turkey is going to supply the Niger Armed Forces with attack aircrafts, Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as well as armored vehicles. The Bayraktar TB2 UAVs, manufactured by Baykar Technologies, have played a key role in several recent conflicts, in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Azerbaijan. To date, Baykar Technologies has contracts with 13 countries, including a joint production deal with Ukraine. On Nov. 12, Ukrainian firm Ivchenko-Progress and Turkey’s Baykar Technologies announced a deal that will supply Ukrainian-made engines for new military attack drones. On the sidelines of the military equipment exposition held in Istanbul last October, the 2021 Saha Expo, Baykar explained that their new TB3 drone model is designed to take off and land from the deck of the TCG Anadolu, a light amphibious, multi-role assault aircraft carrier and 2022’s largest ship of the Turkish Armed Forces.

Turkey is one of the top four drone manufacturers in the world, along with the United States, Israel and China. Turns out that the Turkish ones, however, cost less! Nonetheless, the drones’ success, used by the government to justify its policy, is not enough to keep the country’s economy going.

The government’s latest attempt at boosting the economy is the opening of a new alternative canal to the Bosphorus. The Turkish government is hoping for capital investments from Qatar which Turkey has strong military ties with. The plan has led to protests, not only by the environmentalists, but also by international diplomacy. The canal’s management system would in fact invalidate the Montreux Convention, which regulates naval transit between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.

Lira’s crisis is not just determined by economic and financial reasons but also by international politics. Turkish bourgeoisie’s open policy is to swing Turkey’s neighborhood states. Despite strong economic and military ties with Europe and the United States, Turkey does not hesitate turning to Russia, China and Gulf countries in search of support in its role of regional ruling imperialism.

In central-eastern Mediterranean, Turkey’s intention is to participate in the exploitation of the underwater gas and oil fields, clashing not only with Greece, but also with Egypt, Israel, the UAE and France. Turkey also intends to challenge the current international agreements regarding the Cyprus dispute.

Ankara is also directly involved in the war in Libya where it is opposed to Russia, Egypt and France. By reopening the Cyprus dispute, Turkey refueled its tensions with both the Republic of Cyprus and Greece. In Syria, the state of tension continues between Ankara on one side and Russia and the Assad regime – but also the United States, accused of supporting the Autonomous Administration of North East Syria (AANES) and its armed forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), considered a terrorist organization by the Turkish government – on the other.

Furthermore, Turkey is in a dispute with the United States over the purchase of Moscow’s S400 missile system. The US then refused to supply F35 fighter jets, which could make Ankara turn to Moscow to renew its air fleet as well.

A militaristic and warmongering spiral that can only lead to further tragedies for the Turkish and international working class.

Like a poker player, the head of the Turkish government is raising the stakes but he will have to uncover his cards at some point. That is what the U.S. is waiting for, pressing, also using financial ways, for Erdogan to return to the ranks and to his role in NATO.

Meanwhile, the working class has reacted to the worsening of its conditions, although to an insufficient extent so far. The union “DISK’’ – supported by the union “KESK” – has organized rallies in major Turkish cities under the slogan “We can’t make ends meet”, demanding minimum wage’s increase.

On December 12, a new union rally was held in Istanbul. The protesters mainly demanded for minimum wage, which is currently the equivalent of 179 euros, to be raised to 331 euros. According to the Social Security Institute more than 40% of all the workers in the country are on minimum wage. For 2021, monthly minimum wage amounted to 2,826 liras. At the beginning of the year that was worth 380 US dollars but is currently worth less than 186.

In four cities, KESK, the Confederation of Public Workers’ Unions, organized demonstrations on the last weekend of December. Izmir and Diyarbakir’s rallies was held on Saturday, Istanbul and Ankara’s on Sunday, both under the slogan “We can’t make ends meet”.

These mobilizations have yielded a first important result as the government, to avoid the growth of union rallies, but also keeping an eye on the 2023 elections, announced that starting from January 2022 minimum wage will be increased by 50% and public workers’ wages by 30%. The increase will not even cover last year’s wage loss also because it will cause a new increase in inflation. However, it will momentarily alleviate the condition of workers and retirees.

Semi-spontaneous demonstrations were held in the neighborhoods of the cities governed by the opposition. Because of the lira’s collapse the resignation of the government was demanded. The bourgeois opposition (made of the Kemalist social democrats, their dissident fascist allies and the Kurdish nationalists) is organizing rallies to benefit from the discontent caused by the government’s policies but to also prevent an independent class reaction by the proletariat, banking everything on 2023’s distant electoral victory. But if the opposition ends up leading the government, the balance of power between classes won’t change and the Turkish proletariat will certainly not experience significant changes to its conditions.

The current government is keeping the country under a repressive cloak, continuously employing the state of emergency, continuously calling for national unity. Both would be required as Turkey is facing a war on its southern borders, an internal war against the Kurds and a diplomatic situation that has the country engaged on many fronts.

In this situation, Turkey’s proletariat must take care not to be dazzled by the promises of the parties of the bourgeois left and of the nationalists, understanding that it has no allies in other classes. Its ally is other countries’ proletariat. Militarism and war only benefit the bourgeoisie and the ruling classes while for the proletariat they only bring death and hunger.