[GM96] Working Meeting in Turin

23-24 September 2006

Comrades from the Italian sections and from France and Great Britain gathered in Turin on September 23rd and 24th 2006 to take part in the latest of our regular thrice-yearly meetings.

As usual, according to our tried and tested method, the sittings were divided into those dedicated to planning and organisational work, and those in which comrades presented the results of their research into subjects agreed at previous meetings.

At our meetings we are not in the habit of announcing opinions and ‘making interventions’. Our approach is rather to refer to progress made within our overall plan of impersonal research; what we might call scientific research in fact. Those listening to the reports attended not with the aim of sitting in judgement on the theme, or making immediate critiques, and certainly not in order to vote on them. The reports are considered instead as material for further reflection, as the basis for the party to attain a further deepening and greater understanding of the external social world, and about itself.

A taut but non-conflictual atmosphere distinguishes the way we work, where participation in the ongoing difficulties of the class struggle – today mainly on an emotional level and involving study – and an ongoing survey of all aspects of the capitalist crisis, isn’t disrupted by the knowledge that the principal task of our small but compact team today is the defence of the notion of one party in particular.

It was no accident that in 1974 our party organ in Italy called itself Il Partito Comunista, insofar as it rightly considered that an integral part of the programmatic baggage of Marxism, something that is indispensable to the social success of tomorrow’s revolutionary class, is the ensemble of dialectical milestones, the irreversible results of real historical experience, which have taught us what the communist party actually is, how it functions and works within history, and how history shapes it and makes it what it is.

The party is the most precious possession of the working class, it is its mind and its heart. Without class party there remains only the poverty that the dominant class sees, is able to see and wants to see. This party, real and alive, which although attacked from all sides will eventually become a great and visible force, we have found ourselves in the position of having to defend, and we are determined to carry on doing so, with all the forces at out disposal.
 

CHRONOLOGY OF LEBANESE HISTORY

The history of Lebanon, a country artificially formed by western imperialism, was briefly sketched out in this report. Practically non-existent as a State, Lebanon is just a testing ground for struggles and intrigues amongst its various internal components and various foreign infiltrations.

Once again the black clouds of war between bourgeois States are gathering over the region, and in particular, over Lebanon. And as usual, the proletariat will suffer the most, paying the usual heavy tribute of dead and wounded, above all amongst non-combatants. Once again it won’t be a case of a class war and proletarians will be set against each other on the opposing fronts.

The fragile truce in August 2006 which ended the Hezbollah rocket attacks on Galilee and the Israeli bombardments and invasion, has led to a multinational military corps being despatched, under the aegis of the UNO, whose nucleus is composed mainly of French and Italian troops. This hasn’t led to any agreement between the two opposed sides, merely the preservation of a fragile truce, during which both contenders are hoping to reinforce their positions whilst awaiting the next phase of the battle.

Meanwhile imperialism isn’t relaxing its grip on a region of fundamental strategic importance. For the time being it continues to act through its local ‘agents’, which consist of Israel and the pro-US forces on one side, and Hezbollah and its allies on the other. The working classes of Lebanon suffer oppression from both the country’s own propertied classes and from the capricious, sanguinary plans of actors on the international stage who are considerably more powerful.

Faced with this latest in a long succession of recent tragic events, with even worse ones no doubt in the offing, the party tackled this problem with a view to indicating to the proletariat of the entire region the right road to follow, which, as ever, is to fight for its own class interests. This means urging it to break that solidarity with the dominant classes which over the last seventy years has forced it, in Israel as in Lebanon, to live and die in a state of war, fighting for its own exploiters.

The report went on to provide an outline chronology of the Lebanese region, highlighting the historical reasons that have led to the development of the current ‘canker’. Future work on the subject will plot the inextricable links which exist between the events taking place in Lebanon and those in Iraq, with the latter, as we all know, having been hurled into a situation where daily bloody massacres are the norm. It has been labelled a ‘civil war’, but in fact this ruthless, savage war is an attack by the regime against the indigenous proletariat.

That the Middle East crisis is continually being stoked up and kept in a perpetual state of irresolution is all to the advantage of the war party, whose interests fully coincide with those of imperialism,.

Our prediction is that the middle-eastern proletariat will have no peace as long as capitalism endures, a view confirmed by these latest terrible events.
 

COURSE OF THE ECONOMY

This report continued the ongoing exposition of the statistics describing the senile crisis of world capitalism, a work requiring a lot of dedication and patience.  To this end, a number of updated graphs and tables were put on display to aid understanding.

For this meeting, along with the ongoing obligatory temporal updating of the serial data presented on previous occasions, a new table had been drawn up to provide figures on industrial production in India and China, who can now be ranked alongside and compared with the older capitalisms. We are working towards reinserting the figures for Russia, but for this we will need a device of some sort to make the delicate adjustments and calculations needed to bring the old ‘soviet’ series into line with the figures from after ‘the collapse’, which refer to a much changed territory, population and economic environment.

The tables under discussion represent only the indices of production. They do not therefore depict the full extent of production in the various countries but merely measure the growth in each of them. In the course of our ongoing study, we will aim to eventually update our quantitative comparison of the global industrial powers, but since capital’s vitality is based not so much on the dimension of capital but on the speed of its growth – which is profit, or rather the rate of profit, which instead is declining and sometimes very steeply at that – it is more useful to work on the basis of the variation than its overall size.

In the Chinese government statistics, from which we have drawn our data, there appear two series: one called “Index of gross output of industry” and the other “Index of gross domestic product of industry”. From reading the relevant literature it would seem the Gross Output is more relevant to our work, insofar as it corresponds, more or less, to the sum of variable capital and surplus value.
 

Comparison of this series with the one we published in Comunismo, no.46 in 1999, in an earlier study on the growth of Chinese industry also derived from the Chinese State’s yearbook, gives us almost matching growth rates, apart from the first three years: in the 1999 study, the series running from 1949 to 1953 was 100-137-189-245-319, which is now reduced to a more modest 100-123-147-185-241, which still gives nevertheless an average annual growth rate of 25%. This brings them into line with the data in the most recent Yearbook, which we assume to be more accurate. Another dissimilarity is in the upward revision of the figures for 1994 to 1997, which were still only provisional in the 1999 study, on the basis of more accurate data.

These adjustments don’t alter the overall sense of our Table 2 from 1999: between the peaks 1949-1960-1966-1993 the average percentage growth is altered from 26.4-0.4-12.0 to 23.2-0.4-12.4 and, for the whole period running from 1949 to 1993, from 13.7% to 13%.

The 1999 study went on to compare the size of Chinese capital with other countries and looked at its steel production, which are other aspects of the economic panorama we intend to integrate.

As in the old series we had 1949 = 100, the year in which Chinese capital first really made its mark.

From 2000 onwards, however, we only have the figures from the Gross Domestic Product series available, which we include here on a provisional basis. This second series gives lower growth rates. Divergences can be observed here which also differ significantly from the more up-to-date figures regularly published in The Economist.

The annual series from 1949 to 2005 (the latter isn’t a peak year, but just the latest for which we have figures) shows maximums in 1960 and 1966, marking out three periods showing respectively average rates of 23.2%, 0.4% and 12.4%. The intermediate period, however, was shaped more by ‘political’ rather than economic causes, covering as it does the so-called ‘Great Leap forward’ and the ‘Cultural Revolution’. If we add together the first two periods we have a period of 17 years with an average growth of 14.6%. We therefore find the tendency for a slowdown in growth, typical of all capitalisms, confirmed.

Over the whole of the 56-year period from 1949 onward we have an average rate of growth of 13.0%. This needs to be compared with the equivalent initial phase of other young capitalisms. For Russia and Japan, referring to old party studies, we have statistics available from 1913: counting forward 56 years we arrive at 1969, not far off the pre-world crisis peak of 1973. From 1913 to 1973 we have an average annual growth of 7.6% and for Russia 8.2%, a lot lower than China. But it should be observed that in 1913 capitalism in Japan and Russia was already sufficiently developed, for example, to enable it to provide enough weaponry to rearm for a world war. In Russia in fact, after the war and the revolution, capitalism was effectively ‘born again’. To sum up, we can say that Chinese industrialism in 1949 was far below the level of Russian and Japanese industrialism in 1913. The figures on steel production (from the 1999 report) confirm this: in 1913 Russia was already producing 4.47 million tons; Japan, in the same year, 0.41 million; China in 1949, only 0.16 million. The latter is indeed partly due to war-time destruction, but the previous peak from 1944 is still only 1.42 million, and needs to be put in the context of the far higher population of China, much larger than Japan’s and Russia’s.

Thus the menacing contortions of the Dragon – which instead of tongues of fire vomits outs endless heaps of low-cost merchandise of every shape and size, hypnotising and striking fear into a Western bourgeoisie now thoroughly decrepit and incapable of any defensive action – are due to factors which, in part, will go on to lose their exceptional character.

By making a more thorough analysis of the annual series on Chinese industry we can see it follows a very irregular course, with an alternation of years of immense growth, which should be viewed with caution, like those of 1992 and 1994 with +24% per annum, with those of drastic slowdown in growth. In the 52 years between 1949 and 2001 we can therefore identify the presence of 7 cycles, of between 6 and 10 years duration. We expected nothing less, Karl Marx had already detected it in the China, the ‘workshop of the world’, of his day: Great Britain. The beginning and the end of capitalism, conceived of as two dragons, which History needed once upon a time but which we’re heartily sick of now, and which we can, and must, free ourselves of.

We dealt with the series on Indian industry in a slightly different way as we have no previous party studies to rely on.

Our starting point here is 1948; this is simply because the figures before then are not currently available to us. There remains however the possibility, in India’s case, of recovering data from the nineteenth century; when the development of English imperialism, which was already well under way at that time, is bound to be well documented in colonial statistics.

The key years we have identified are 1953, and the peak years of 1966 and 2000 (both of global relevance). In the four periods which result we have the following series of average growth rates: 2.8%; 6.9%; 5.7%; and 5.3%. We see here, therefore, a much more mature progression than the Chinese one.

But maturity in capitalist terms doesn’t denote regularity: the Indian series, too, is marked by a continual alternation of accelerations and slowdowns.

In order to make a comparison between countries, it is better to refer to the Table on Long Cycles of Industrial Production. This is derived from the table covering the short cycles, defined by all of the rising successive peaks. Therefore the extreme years of the periods in the long cycles aren’t exactly the same in all countries. For example, for Russia we have had to take 1940-1973-1989, for France 1937-1974-2001, for Italy 1938-1974-2000, etc.
 

Here the capitalisms have been placed in order of ‘youthfulness’, from China to England. As we know the table can be read vertically or horizontally: from top to bottom and from left to right average increments steadily decrease, indicating how a country’s capitalism slows down in proportion to the time during which it has been reproducing itself. By its inherent nature, capital is driven to progressively ‘exhaust’ the human and natural resources existing in any given territory and historico-social environment. Inexorably the rate of profit declines to almost zero; there is no more ‘heat’ and the machines grind to a halt. The working class energy which the ruling class harness to churn out profit for its own ends, and which it has less and less use for, will have to be used by the working class for its own ends, to destroy capitalism.

In the table on the long cycles, we can clearly see China’s demonstration of youthful vigour, followed quite far behind by India, and then by Russia, Japan and the others. Over the last thirty years the only exceptions have been Germany and, most markedly, Italy, which one might describe as old before its time.

The last column covers the current cycle, calculated therefore on the basis of provisional figures but which still clearly indicates the gap between the ‘old’ and the ‘new’, which seems irretrievable.

In the previous version of the table, Average annual rate of increase in industrial production between successive peaks of maximum growth, the table of short cycles, which we presented at Viareggio, since it only went back to 1937, a year which in no country was an industrial peak, the older cycles couldn’t be really considered as such, in other words they didn’t commence with a peak. In the present version, which goes back to 1929, this has been rectified (see previous report on the Viareggio meeting).
 

This table clearly shows that the imperialist war served as a kind of fountain of youth for capitalism. All the countries that suffered from severe war damage go on to show long uninterrupted cycles of accumulation. And cycles which follow wars are in general long.

Years of international capitalist crisis that particularly stand out, apart from 1929-33 which isn’t shown here, are those before the Second World War (indeed, they caused it), in 1966, and even greater, 1973-4; finally, in 2000-2001. But the real caesura is in 1974: the figures before and after show a general slowdown in accumulation. The penultimate cycle ends in 2000 (for France in 2001) and only now is there is an upturn from the recession that followed it.

India was affected by the 1966, 1974 and 2000 world recessions, although it wasn’t hit so severely.

As can be seen, if there is a succession of cycles lasting of roughly five years duration in France and Italy, the ten-year cycle is the norm in the United States, to the extent that the next recession can be forecast for around 2010-11.

China will also be due for a crisis around about that time, and, now that it depends more and more on the world market, a really serious crisis like that in 1929 cannot be totally ruled out.
 

THE JEWISH QUESTION

We listened finally to another part of the study dedicated to the controversial Jewish Question; a study which we are aiming to carry out by applying a materialist and dialectical approach to religious history.

In Jewish history, the formula/profession of faith “the Lord has freed us from slavery in Egypt” frequently recurs.

It is well-known how eventually the religions which were inspired by the Old Testament did everything they could to make the formula more palatable by reducing it to abstract spiritual and ideal values; but they who are more familiar with the heart and soul of Judaism know that the formula is a very concrete and material one. The Jews really were waiting for a Messiah, for God’s envoy to liberate them from the enemy. It is useless to pretend not to understand: the notion of a cyclical history, one that recurs, has always suited the dominant classes, which inoculate a vision of the social world and Nature itself as ruled by physical laws, and interpret movement and transformation as metaphor and appearance.

Therefore myth and ideology tend to falsify the model anchored in historical reality, as was, and still is, that of the Jewish world in general.

Of course we see every super-structure as ideological, and thus as an attempt to translate real historical movement into thoughts. What we want to do is to put ancient and modern Jewish history back on its feet, by identifying what interests determined the choices of the various relevant forces, classes and dominant groups; including tragic choices, like the one leading to the crucifixion of Christ.

Let us not forget that in the time of Christ it was rebel slaves who were crucified, and it is certainly not fortuitous that Christ arose in circumstances in which the liberation of slaves was a demand being made throughout the Roman world. Nothing that occurs in history is fortuitous, although nowadays that is what is believed, and they very much want us to believe.

So, we aren’t afraid to say that the message we can draw from those ancient events today can, and must, allude to the liberation of the proletariat subjected to the new Pharaohs, the Pharaohs of capital, with their pyramids, to the Babel of its Towers, which a certain type of Islamic fundamentalism has deluded itself it can topple without the need for class struggle; in fact, against, and as a surrogate for, class struggle. Here then is why our position is absolutely unique and doesn’t coincide with anyone else’s.

If, however, as has been sneakily suggested in an undermining kind of way, you wish to maintain that Marx thought the way he did simply because he was a ‘secularised Jew with a chip on his shoulder’, fed up with the new bosses, then we would say, yes, historical materialism does have its ideological component, but it can’t be reduced to that. We are its bearers, not just mawkish sentimentalists aiming to tug at the heartstrings.

Thus the history of Judaism interests us because it represents an influential interpretation not just of ancient history, but also of the present, which is dominated by the struggle between capital and labour, and which the ruling classes are doing everything they can to disguise as a religious struggle.