As Long as There is War, Business is Guaranteed

For many years, we have been closely observing the current prolonged period of general capitalist crisis, during which major economies are heavily experiencing a crisis of commodity overproduction—a phenomenon that slows and clogs the cycle of reproduction of invested capital. An enormous mass of produced goods cannot find an equally enormous solvent market (one with sufficient money for purchase); crises manifest in their criticality when warehouses overflow with unsold goods.

From our Marxist analysis, we know that to escape this situation, capital lays off thousands of workers deemed redundant and closes hundreds of factories. If this is not enough, capital destined for commodity production is left with two possibilities: a general reduction in real wages or, as a last resort, a world war that can destroy both commodities and the “surplus” population, the majority of whom are proletarians. A typical example is World War II, which ended in 1945 and allowed for a rapid recovery of the capitalist cycle, remembered as the “economic boom”. This intense restart lasted until 1973, after which crises of varying intensity followed, succeeded by increasingly weak recoveries until reaching the current situation of general crisis, characterized by more factory closures and an army of laid-off proletarians.

We Marxists know well that it is impossible to transform this into a “capitalism with a human face”—one capable of self-regulation and rational production organization to mitigate the disastrous consequences of its crises. Capitalism cannot be reformed due to its specific characteristics, including ruthless competition between various capitalisms that cannot renounce any trade war to defeat rivals. We also know from painful historical experience that various capitalisms align immediately only to fight the proletariat should it organize to overthrow one through extreme struggle.

In capitalism, war is a necessity rather than the insane decision of a crazed head of state; everything is calculated, and only the final result is uncertain. In any case, the proletariat is always the sacrificial victim of these maneuvers. From trade war to fought war, the step is short. Actual warfare must be carefully prepared in timing and manner, and allies must be found; its extension reflects the depth of the capitalist crisis. The casus belli is found or invented at the appropriate moment. “Public opinion” has long been prepared for this scenario by talk of a “Third World War in pieces,” considering the quantity and cruelty of ongoing conflicts.

Currently Active Conflicts

According to authoritative research centers, there are currently an estimated 56 to 59 active wars. A third international institution puts the number of ongoing conflicts at over 100. Based on their statistics—essentially an accounting of death—bourgeois institutes classify conflicts as follows:

• Interstate Conflicts: Rare but extremely devastating, such as the case between Russia and Ukraine.
• Intrastate Conflicts: Civil wars pitting armed groups against the government, as seen in Syria, Sudan, and Yemen.
• Non-state Violence: Clashes between unofficial armed groups, such as cartels in Latin America (Mexico and Colombia).
• Unilateral Violence: Intense and repeated deliberate attacks against civilians, particularly frequent in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa.

These are categorized by intensity—Extreme, High, Turbulent, and Low or Inactive—and color-coded on dedicated maps and atlases. The data and statistics provided by these observations outline a future scenario, particularly regarding major interstate conflicts that are expected to mark a new distribution of areas of influence and economic dominance among current capitalist powers.

Geostrategic Scenarios

The primary actors in these considerations are the USA, China, Russia, India, and Turkey, followed by other lower-level economies. In 1884, during the expansion of a still-young capitalism, 14 European powers and the United States met at the Berlin Conference to divide zones of influence in Africa to avoid wars among European countries over colonial partitioning.

Now, a senescent capitalism updates previous geostrategic theories. The United States remains a central subject with the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, which originally sought to prevent European interference in the American continent. Today, this doctrine has been expanded by President Trump—an efficient champion of American imperialism—who claims influence over Canada and Greenland to control future strategic maritime routes in the Arctic opening due to climate change. China, Russia, and the EU are also participating in this “Race for the Arctic”.

Further steps in this U.S. project include claims on Panama and its strategic canal, and military pressure on Venezuela under the false pretext of fighting drug traffickers—a move that hides American interests in vast, untapped (or rather, “to be plundered”) raw materials. The old motto “America for Americans” has transformed from a national defensive strategy into one of geopolitical expansion. Reports suggest U.S. interest in reclaiming the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan (near Kabul), which was returned to the Taliban in 2021. According to President Trump, this site is close to a Chinese nuclear weapons facility—a claim denied by those who would not tolerate a “stars and stripes” airbase in their backyard.

On the other side, the 2005 “String of Pearls” theory describes China’s maritime strategy in the Indian Ocean, aimed at securing a sequence of dual-use (civil and military) ports to protect trade routes essential for flooding the planet with commodities. Complementing this is the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) launched in 2015, linking China to the Pakistani port of Gwadar to create a commercial and energy alternative to the South China Sea routes, which are subject to potential American naval blockades under the guise of “protecting” Taiwan’s independence. This is part of the broader BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) extending into Africa and Europe.

Conclusion

While Russia is intent on resolving its situation in Ukraine, other imperialisms are weaving economic and military alliances, as their smaller size prevents them from playing a primary role in the next war scenario. The development of the overproduction crisis will dictate the timing and manner of events, which will inevitably result in a brutal destruction of commodities and proletarians.

However, the latter can change this destiny, but only through proletarian revolution. Only through this path, under the guidance of the Communist Party, can the world proletariat rebel against the yoke of the agonizing capitalist system, get rid of misery and war, and reach Communism—the only world possible for human existence as a joyful coexistence with other living beings and the preservation of nature for the future of the human species